What Dropbox can teach us about cloud
computing
SEATTLE – Feb. 15, 2012 – Dropbox is the most deceptively simple of
services.
Place a Dropbox folder on each computer or gadget you own. Drag any file into
that folder. A copy of that file automatically appears on every device where you
put a Dropbox folder. It’s idiot proof.
But don’t let that simplicity
fool you. Dropbox also epitomizes a revolutionary shift that is transforming our
relationship to technology and turning the technology industry upside down:
Cloud computing.
The “cloud” has been one of Silicon Valley’s biggest
buzz phrases for a couple of years now. In the past year, it’s moved from the
talk of tech insiders into the minds of mainstream users thanks to the launch of
services like Apple’s iCloud.
And in the coming decade, analysts are
betting that cloud computing will be the defining trend in technology. Large
companies like Hewlett-Packard and Oracle are rushing to overhaul their business
to sell the tools that enable cloud computing services, while consumers are
projected to spend $16 billion annually on cloud services by 2016, according to
Gartner research.
But as important as this trend is, I find the concept
can still be bewildering to non-techies. Answering the question, “What is cloud
computing?” can lead to lots of rambling answers full of industry statistics.
None of it really helps the average person understand what’s different about the
cloud, and why this is all happening now. And most important, why they should
care.
“The cloud is everywhere now in our personal lives,” said Ray Wang,
CEO of Constellation Research. “Because of cloud computing, we’re basically
assuming that everything you’re doing digitally is available somewhere else
through the Internet.”
To understand why, I thought it would be helpful
to put a single service under the microscope to see what it tells us about cloud
computing. I couldn’t think of a better company than Dropbox.
Founded in
2007, the rise of San Francisco-based Dropbox tracks almost perfectly with the
cloud’s move from the fringes of tech into its defining trend. Last September,
Dropbox scored an astounding $250 million in venture capital and currently has
about 50 million users.
Just last month, Dropbox was voted “startup of
the year” at the annual Crunchies Awards. But it also faces enormous competition
in the file sharing space from other startups such as Box.net, CloudMe,
SugarSync, Egnyte, and big players such as Apple and Google, which are both
actively expanding the ability of users to share files.
The company was
created by two MIT grads, Drew Houston and Arash Ferdowsi, who were frustrated
about having to email each other’s files.
Let’s start right there. Once,
the problem of how to move files between users or gadgets would have been an
issue for only the highest end users. Maybe the business road warrior on the go
or the most sophisticated programmers.
But around 2007, this started to
become a problem for the average person for several reasons. Many of us now had
more than one computing device, compared to a decade earlier when most people
had one. As of 2010, 124 million adults in the United States had more than one
device connected to the Internet, according to IDC, a technology research firm,
which projected that number would climb to 184 million by 2016.
On top of
that, these devices were coming in many different shapes and sizes. In the late
1990s, most of us probably just had one PC running Windows. But now we might
have a PC at work, a Mac at home, and a smartphone running Android or iOS, and
possibly a tablet. So moving a single file between all those devices, and
changing it into different formats quickly, could be a pain.
“The cool
thing about the Internet is that everything is going to be connected,” said
Sujay Jaswa, vice president of business development and sales for Dropbox. “But
it’s less interesting if all your stuff is not there and you’re not able to
share it. And all these individual pieces to technology are magical, but they’re
also incompatible.”
All of these devices have also allowed us to become
far more mobile with work. According to market research firm IDC, the number of
workers worldwide who are considered mobile – that is, working in more than one
location – has climbed from 758.6 million in 2006 to 1 billion in 2010 with a
projection of 1.3 billion in 2013, about 37 percent of all workers. All that
shuffling around means we need more help moving our digital stuff from gadget to
gadget.
Suddenly, the problem encountered by Dropbox’s founders wasn’t
just theirs. It was a problem for more than a billion people.
A service
like Dropbox wouldn’t have been as valuable a decade ago, said ChenLi Wang, team
leader of business and sales operations at Dropbox. “Now people are working
across many geographic regions and we’re in a much different place than we were
five or 10 years ago,” he said.
Before services like Dropbox, we were
able to move files between computers using thumb drives for small files, or by
logging into a server to transfer really big files. But those are both a pain
when you have to do it constantly, especially for the increasingly large
multimedia files we create.
Still, even just five years ago, Dropbox
would have a limited market for another reason: Networks were too darn slow.
Uploading stuff to the Internet, especially large files, could be a slow,
agonizing process. But over the past several years, network speeds have
dramatically increased.
Back in 2004, less than 30 percent of U.S. homes
had broadband connections, according to the Pew Research Center’s Internet &
American Life Project. Now Pew says that percentage has jumped to 60
percent.
In addition, the number of people in North America using speedy
3G networks for their mobile devices has climbed from 20 percent in 2007 to 54
percent in 2011, according to Morgan Stanley research.
These three pieces
– multiple gadgets, mobile workforce, faster networks – wouldn’t have been
enough for Dropbox if one other piece didn’t fall into place: Over the past
decade, the price of digital storage declined dramatically. By one estimate,
from Clearwell Systems, an IT research firm, the price of storing 1 gigabyte of
information fell from $20 in 2000 to 10 cents in 2010.
That dramatic
decline gave us more space to store our stuff. More importantly, it led
companies like Amazon to sell space on their own servers to startups like
Dropbox. That meant that Dropbox could start for very little money.
And
that meant Dropbox can offer its basic service – 2GB of storage – for
free.
The trends that have given rise to cloud computing are projected to
accelerate over the next decade. That’s bad news if you sell disk drives or
servers. But it’s going to create a world where virtually every bit of our
digital lives are available everywhere instantaneously.
And that, of
course, is very good news for Dropbox.
Copyright © 2012 the San Jose
Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.), Chris O’Brien. Distributed by MCT Information
Services.
